A Hybrid Process of Micro-Simulation and Logistic Regression for Short-Term Work Zone Traffic Diversion

The rapidly growing number of work zones on the Interstate highway system is having significant operational impacts due to the temporary loss of capacity. Work zone impact on safety and mobility creates a strong need to alleviate work zone congestion and protect the road users and workers, which requires a sufficient understanding of work zone impact on traffic flow. Previous studies and field observations demonstrated the importance of considering diversion phenomena when performing work zone impact analysis. To overcome the limitations of deterministic queuing approaches applied in most work zone impact analysis tools, a hybrid process combining micro-simulation and logistic regression was developed to imitate diversion behavior dynamically in work zone approaching area with a number of entrance and exit ramps. Specifically, the logistic regression model based on the field observations was incorporated into a well-calibrated VISSIM model to simulate traffic flow on work zones with diversion behavior. The integration of the two models was achieved via the development of diversion control module using COM interface provided by VISSIM. The comparison between simulation outputs and field observations suggested that the diversion control module based on logistic analysis can simulate the queue propagation process due to lane closure in an efficient and effective manner. It was demonstrated that the hybrid process can improve work zone impact analysis in simulation environments by utilizing real-time traffic feedback information to emulate the diversion phenomenon upstream of work zones.