Dynamic Modeling of Work Zone Traffic and Its Spillover Effect in Large-Scale Networks: Methodology and Its Application to Fix I-5 Project

This paper presents several key models to evaluate work zone impact in the context of dynamic network analysis. A route choice model is first proposed where travelers are divided into two groups, habitual travelers and adaptive travelers. The habitual travelers strictly follow their pre-selected routes determined prior to their departure, while adaptive travelers are willing to explore new routes in response to up-to-date traffic information. The diversion ratio, i.e. the percentage of adaptive travelers, is expected to increase when a work zone is present. A revised Cell-Transmission Model (CTM) is used to describe traffic evolution in the presence of work zones. Models to estimate the fuel consumption and emissions in the network are also presented, and they use the link-based time-varying average speed and link flows as main input. All those models are then implemented to assess the traffic impact of an actual work zone, the Fix I-5 project in the Sacramento Metropolitan Area. The case study demonstrates that the proposed work zone models are capable of modeling the impact of a work zone in a realistic size network with satisfactory results.