Modeling Commuters’ Response to Pre-Trip Information Provided for Prolonged and Large-Scale Network Disruptions: Case Study of West LRT Construction in Calgary, Canada

This paper models commuters’ response to pre-trip information disseminated through electronic newsletters, which are advising route diversions and mode change due to a major LRT Construction in the City of Calgary, Canada. The West LRT line is a major construction affecting daily commute around an urbanized area. The construction lasts three years and during this time roads and lane closures take place in the vicinity of the construction zones. Data on commuters’ route making decisions were obtained by conducting a survey on a sample of users of the main affected roads. Two discrete choice models were calibrated for this purpose. The first model examines commuters’ response to traffic information disseminated through newsletters, and the second model investigates the reason behind the low response rate of commuters. In these models the effects of socio-economic characteristics, congestion level, trip characteristics, weather conditions, and frequency of driving in the vicinity of the LRT construction zone, familiarity with alternative routes, route characteristics and access to other sources of traffic alerts are examined. Although 13% of commuters are likely to make no changes in their routes and trips, 46% of the respondents stated that they would make pronounced changes in trip planning by changing modes, departure time or destination; 41% stated no change in their route. The attitude and perception towards the quality of information provided by the newsletters were found to be critical contributing factors affecting the travelers’ responses to these systems. Respondents stated that the perceived unreliability of newsletter information and the expected similarity in travel time on alternate route are major reasons behind the low compliance rate.