Spatial-Temporal Varying Coefficient Model for Lane-Changing Behavior in Work Zone Merging Areas

This study investigates the lane-changing behavior in work zone merging areas during the period from the time of starting a lane-changing maneuver to that of completing the lane-changing maneuver. With vehicle trajectory data from short-term work zone sites, we establish a spatial-temporal varying coefficient model considering possible spatial-varying and time-varying effects. Model results show that four factors including the longitudinal gap between the lane-changing vehicle and lead vehicle, lane-changing vehicle speed, through lane lag vehicle type and crash severity between the lane-changing vehicle and the through lane lag vehicle exhibit spatial-varying effects on the drivers’ lane-changing behavior, while time-varying effects are found from the lead vehicle speed in the merge lane, crash severities of the lane-changing vehicle with regard to the lead vehicle and the through lane lead vehicle. Time-varying and spatial-varying effects from vehicle crash severities between the lane-changing vehicle and through lane vehicles suggest that lane-changing vehicles tend to take a risky merge as the elapsed time increases or when they are closer to the work zone.