Impact of Lane Closures on Roadway Capacity: Modeling Diversion Propensity at Work Zones (Part C)

Chapter 10 of the FDOT Plans Preparation Manual titled “Work Zone Traffic Control” contains a lane closure analysis procedure, in which a “Remaining Traffic Factor” (RTF) is used to account for possible traffic diversion during a lane closure. However, no guidance has been offered on how to obtain the value of the RTF. The purposes of this study are twofold. First, diversion behaviors at work zones were modeled in a discrete choice modeling framework. The researchers conducted a stated preference survey to collect data on driver’s diversion propensity and then calibrated a binary logit model. The model provides a better understanding of drivers’ diversion behaviors at work zones, and can be used to forecast diversion rates in a work zone traffic analysis. Second, researchers proposed two procedures, namely open-loop and closed-loop, to apply the calibrated binary logit model to compute the RTF. An Excel tool was developed to facilitate the computation.